PSL Appraiser

Hi All!

Let me introduce myself, John Patton.  I have been in the area for 2.5 years, prior to Port St Lucie, I was in South Florida, Miramar, a suburb to Fort Lauderdale. I have been appraising for the last 6 years in Florida.  I specialize in the Port St Lucie area but I am very familar with, and have lots of experience in St Lucie and Martin Counties.  I am approved with most national banks and my FHA certification is pending. I am a member of South Florida Board of Realtors, and have access to both Regional MLS and South Florida MLS.

I have seen and appraised the full spectrum of market values from stable, rapid, to declining markets in both South Florida and the Treasure Coast.  As part of a Professional Real Estate Appraiser's required knowledge, it is my job to complete research on not only the home I am appraising and it's neighborhood, but the global, national, regional, and local economies. As a Specialist in Port St Lucie, I pull monthly data from the MLS, city data, and public records and other sources. Data includes, average sales price, average size of a home, days on the market, average list price, number of total sales, building permits, average intertest rates, vacancy, number of active listings, fed numbers, and more.  With this data, I analyze with spreadsheet formulas, draw graphs.  Forecasting and trending is difficult, I try to analyze population shifts, employment shifts, new construction, REO, Inventory Supply Levels, absorption rates, etc. This information is a great tool to fully understanding the local market.

Port St Lucie has some aggressive growth plans and along with the new state tax proposals and the city's fear of less revenue, followed by their cuts in municipal services, makes forecasting even more difficult.  In future blogs, I would like to explore the growth/demand of the area.

With all of this information, I am trying to put together a quartlerly report that graphs the changes for Port St Lucie and the market values of the homes.  

So where is the market in Port St Lucie?   First, lets explain the typical (average) home in the area. It's a CBS, 3/2/2, 1,720 square feet of GLA (living area), that is approximately 9 years old.  This home relects the sales prices herewithin.   Feb2006 is when the market peaked. The number of sales and market values have been falling off considerably since Feb.  The number of sales in Sept 2005 was 530 with an average sales price of $271000. The peak we saw an average sales price of $275,000 and 324 sales.  We are currently in May 2007 at $213,000 with 165 sales and a slight increase in June 2007 to $215,000 with 183 sales.  Is this the turn/bottom we are looking for?  In addition to the increase in both number of sales and price, listing/asking price is also increasing.  Days on the Market is holding steady at 160 for a properly priced home.  Inventory levels have remained steady, and jobless claims are increasing. Before I could call this a steady market, I would need to see another 2-3 months of data, especially data after the summer.   What are some of the concerns that may cause this to continue downward?  Taxes, Interest Rates, employment, etc. 

What do you think?  Where is the bottom?

None of this information above should be used to make a decision on a specific home's market value.  A professional should be consulted.

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